Revisiting the determinants of futures contracts success: the role of market participants
研究了2010年芝加哥商品交易所推出的干酒糟期货合约失败的原因，发现套期保值者和投机者类型影响交易量，且相关期货合约的套期保值者交易量对联合生产商品的期货合约成功至关重要。
Abstract The Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced a futures contract for distillers’ dried grains (DDGs) in early 2010, but the market became inactive only four months after its inception. While many new futures contracts do not develop into high‐volume traders, interest from DDG cash market participants indicated that this contract could be successful. Prompted by the unexpected lack of trading activity in this new futures market, we empirically revisit the question of what factors contribute to a futures contract's success and extend the literature by investigating the roles of market participants and the significance of supporting futures markets. Estimation results indicate that the market participant type—hedger or speculator—affects futures contract trade volume. More importantly, we find that the viability of new futures contracts for commodities that are jointly produced with other commodities is impacted by hedgers’ trade volume of the related futures contract. These results provide important additions into the portfolio of indicators used by commodity exchanges to more cost‐effectively evaluate new futures contract products.