阿尔特曼Z评分模型在预测斯洛伐克公司财务困境中的可移植性

THE PORTABILITY OF ALTMAN’S Z-SCORE MODEL TO PREDICTING CORPORATE FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF SLOVAK COMPANIES

Technological and Economic Development of Economy · 2016
被引 49
人大 A-

中文导读

检验阿尔特曼Z评分模型在斯洛伐克企业中的预测能力,发现该模型可移植到斯洛伐克经济环境,原始和修订版在整体分类准确率上更优,重新估计系数有助于更好识别困境企业。

Abstract

The paper challenges the widespread use of Altman’s bankruptcy formula known as the “Z-score model” in Slovak corporate practice and comes with the goal to verify its usability in the Slovak economic environment. To this end, a definition of financial distress is adopted that summarizes weaknesses of Slovak enterprises stemming particularly from liquidity drain and operating losses. The verification juxtaposes three variants of the Z-score model and assesses their prediction ability using a data set of Slovak enterprises for the period from 2009 until 2013. Both the original 1968 Z-score model and the revised 1983 Z-score devised for the US economic environment are compared with the Z-score model re-estimated to the Slovak data copying the methodological procedure of Altman. The results indicate that Altman’s bankruptcy formula is portable into the Slovak economic conditions and useful for predicting financial difficulties in view of the adopted definition of financial distress. Altman’s original and (especially the) revised formulation of the Z-score model are preferable if overall classification accuracy is the main interest. Finally, it is advisable to re-estimate the coefficients of the Z-score model if financially distressed enterprises are the focus and the goal is to classify distressed enterprises as best as possible.

财务困境预测斯洛伐克企业模型可移植性