Fiscal multipliers: new evidence from a large panel of countries
使用120个国家1960-2014年的数据，通过结构面板向量自回归模型发现，财政乘数在发达经济体、低债务、高金融发展、金融危机和经济衰退时更大；贸易和资本开放度及汇率灵活性的影响取决于实际汇率和货币政策反应。
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of fiscal policy by employing a structural panel vector autoregression model with a shock to fiscal spending identified via theoretical robust sign restrictions. Using an annual data set of 120 countries over the period 1960-2014, the results show that fiscal multipliers are larger in advanced economies, when public debt is low, at a high level of financial development, in a financial crisis, and during business cycle downturns. Contrary to conventional wisdom, fiscal multipliers are not necessarily smaller in countries that are relatively open to trade and capital flows and operating under flexible exchange rate regimes. The relationship between the size of fiscal multipliers and the three dimensions of openness-trade openness, capital mobility, and exchange rate flexibility-hinges on the response of the real exchange rate and the domestic monetary policy pursued.