Local House Price Diffusion
研究了美国全国和波士顿地区的房价扩散现象，发现房价增长存在持续性和空间溢出效应，且跨市场扩散强于市场内扩散，基本面与预期共同驱动房价波动。
Abstract We contribute to the literature on house price diffusion by carrying out our analysis at three levels: CBSA (nationwide), town and census tract (Greater Boston Area). We estimate fixed‐effect models of house price growth on lagged growth (“Persistence”), nearby lagged growth (“Spillovers”) and Fundamentals growth. CBSA‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects are positive and significant. These large ripple/contagion effects likely contributed to the recent national‐level housing downturn. We find evidence of smaller town‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects. Hence, diffusion appears stronger across than within housing markets. Fundamentals and price expectations drive price diffusion, leaving room for bubbles from future price overoptimism.