Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?
实证检验了外汇干预通过信号未来货币政策意图影响汇率的常见说法，即央行是否真的在干预后调整货币政策。
A frequently cited explanation for why foreign exchange interventions affect the exchange rate is that these interventions signal future monetary policy intentions. This explanation says that central banks signal a more contractionary monetary policy in the future by buying domestic currency today. Therefore, the expectations of future tighter monetary policy make the domestic currency appreciate, even though the current monetary effects of the intervention are typically offset by central banks. Of course, this explanation presumes that central banks in fact back up interventions with subsequent changes in monetary policy. In this paper, we empirically examine this presumption.