Simulation-based ripple effect modelling in the supply chain
本文分析供应链中低频高影响中断引发的涟漪效应，指出仿真建模的潜力未被充分挖掘，并通过文献分析和仿真模型示例，为管理者提供见解并指出未来研究方向。
In light of low-frequency/high-impact disruptions, the ripple effect has recently been introduced into academic literature on supply chain management. The ripple effect in the supply chain results from disruption propagation from the initial disruption point to the supply, production and distribution networks. While optimisation modelling dominates this research field, the potential of simulation modelling still remains under-explored. The objective of this study is to reveal research gaps that can be closed with the help of simulation modelling. First, recent literature on both optimisation and simulation modelling is analysed. Second, a simulation model for multi-stage supply chain design with consideration of capacity disruptions and experimental results is presented in order to depict major areas of simulation application to the ripple effect modelling. Based on both literature analysis and the modelling example, managerial insights and future research areas are identified in regard to simulation modelling application to the ripple effect analysis in the supply chain. The paper concludes by summarising the most important insights and outlining a future research agenda.