Growing Pains: International Instability and Equity Market Returns
用全球军费支出与GDP之比衡量政治不稳定预期，发现该指标能解释44个国家的股票回报差异，且新兴市场对国际政治不稳定风险更敏感，部分解释了其更高回报。
We use the ratio of growth in global military expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP) to capture ex ante expectations of political instability and explore the relation between this measure and returns. In a standard global asset pricing framework with 44 countries, this measure helps to explain cross‐country return differences. Furthermore, emerging countries have greater exposure to international political instability risk than developed countries. This partially explains the higher returns observed in emerging countries.