“Resistance is futile”: estimating the costs of managing herbicide resistance as a first‐order Markov process and the case of U.S. upland cotton producers
基于2012年美国陆地棉生产者调查，用有序概率模型分析除草剂抗性发现后杂草管理成本的变化，发现初始成本、劳动密集型补救措施和除草剂涂抹是成本增加的关键因素，成本增加范围为每公顷85至138美元。
Abstract A 2012 survey of upland U.S. cotton producers was analyzed to determine the factors contributing to changes in weed management costs (WMCs) after the identification of herbicide‐resistant weeds. An ordered probit regression estimated changes in WMC as a first‐order Markov process. The most important determinants of post‐resistance cost increases were initial WMCs, adoption of labor‐intensive remedial practices, and wick application of herbicides. Cultivation and mechanical/chemical‐intensive practices did not increase WMCs. Post‐resistance changes in WMC ranged between $85 and $138 ha −1 , depending on the practices adopted. WMCs increased by $88 ha −1 when cost‐neutral practices were adopted. The in‐sample aggregate costs of managing herbicide resistance ranged between $25 and $53 million, depending on the types of adopted practices.