One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout
通过2010年和2014年州长选举的实地实验，研究发现选民对选举接近度的信念会随民调更新，但投票率不受这些信念影响。
During the 2010 gubernatorial elections, we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close or not-close race. Subjects update their beliefs in response to polls, but overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, turnout is unaffected by beliefs about election closeness. A follow-up RCT, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and turnout. We caveat that the strength of our evidence depends on assumptions regarding our treatments’ impacts on beliefs.