Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: A new Keynesian approach
研究在两国新凯恩斯模型中趋势通胀对汇率的影响，发现趋势通胀使通胀差异更平滑持久，且能解释标准模型难以拟合的汇率经验规律。
This study examines the exchange rate implications of trend inflation within a two-country New Keynesian (NK) model. An NK Phillips curve generalized by trend inflation makes the inflation differential smoother, more persistent, and less sensitive to the real exchange rate. A Bayesian analysis with post-Bretton Woods data for Canada and the U.S. shows that the model's equilibrium, which relies on Taylor rules with a persistent trend inflation shock and strong policy inertia, mimics empirical regularities in exchange rates that are difficult to reconcile within a standard NK model. Trend inflation helps explain the empirical puzzles of the exchange rate dynamics.