The Effect of IMF Programmes on Economic Growth in Low Income Countries: An Empirical Analysis
使用倾向得分匹配方法，比较1989-2008年间有和没有IMF项目的低收入国家的经济增长表现，发现优惠项目在协议签署后两年内对增长有积极影响，但效果取决于初始经济条件、援助依赖、债务等因素。
Using an LIC-specific participation model, we adopt a propensity score matching (PSM) methodology to compare economic growth performance in countries with and without IMF programmes over the period 1989–2008. Concessional programmes are found to have had a generally positive effect on economic growth for up to two years after agreements were signed. The effects are contingent on other factors including overall initial economic conditions, recent prior growth performance, aid dependency, debt, IMF resources, recent history of IMF engagement and time period. We examine the implications of the results as the IMF considers how best to support the Sustainable Development Goals.