A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation
形式化并量化了长期停滞假说，即自然利率持续偏低导致零利率下限长期约束，并用美国数据校准的生命周期模型测算出自然利率在-1.5%至-2%之间，分解了1970年以来人口和技术因素对利率下降的贡献。
This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from − 1.5 percent to − 2 percent, implying an elevated risk of ZLB episodes for the foreseeable future. We decompose the contribution of demographic and technological factors to the decline in interest rates since 1970 and quantify changes required to restore higher rates.