Inflation Target Credibility: Do the Financial Markets Find the Targets Believable?
研究了24个通胀目标制国家的金融市场对通胀目标的感知，发现感知上限显著高于官方目标，且目标区间更窄、不对称，感知偏高时央行更易偏离目标。
Abstract We investigate the credibility of inflation targeting (IT) central banks (CBs) by estimating perceived inflation targets of the financial markets. We calculate financial markets’ beliefs about the inflation targets of 24 IT countries. Then, we analyse whether the financial markets’ beliefs about inflation targets match the announced targets. We conclude that the perceived upper bound of the inflation target is significantly higher than the announced one in many countries. Additionally, the perceived target band is narrower and asymmetric around the mid‐point of the target for most CBs. We examine the implications of these findings and find that IT CBs are more likely to miss their targets when the perceptions of the financial markets are higher than the announced IT targets. These results indicate that IT CBs should pay attention to the perceptions of the announced targets when implementing policy actions.