Noisy Introspection in the 11–20 Game
基于11-20博弈实验，比较四种策略思维模型，发现引入噪声共同知识的模型预测效果最佳，其中噪声内省模型对行为和信念的预测尤为准确。
Previous experiments based on the 11-20 game have produced evidence for the level-k model with observed levels of strategic thinking consistently ranging from 0 to 3. Our baseline treatment uses the 11-20 game and replicates previous results. We apply four models of strategic thinking to the baseline-treatment data and use these to predict behaviour and beliefs in five other treatments that employ games with a very similar structure. The best predictive performance is achieved by models that incorporate common knowledge of noise'. A model of noisy introspection, which does so, predicts behaviour remarkably well.