Salience theory and stock prices: Empirical evidence
用美国股票数据检验显著性理论对资产定价的影响,发现投资者过度关注过去显著收益,导致股票被错误定价,且该效应在套利受限和高情绪期更强。
We present empirical evidence on the asset pricing implications of salience theory. In our model, investors overweight salient past returns when forming expectations about future returns. Consequently, investors are attracted to stocks with salient upsides, which are overvalued and earn low subsequent returns. Conversely, stocks with salient downsides are undervalued and yield high future returns. We find strong empirical support for these predictions in the cross-section of U.S. stocks. The salience effect is stronger among stocks with greater limits to arbitrage and during high-sentiment periods and not explained by common risk factors and proxies for lottery demand and investor attention.