Fiscal Reforms and the Fiscal Effects of Aid in Uganda
研究了1972-2008年乌干达外国援助与国内财政变量的动态关系，发现援助有助于长期财政均衡、增加税收和公共支出、减少国内借贷，但税收增长缓慢和援助短缺阻碍了预算平衡。
A dynamic relationship between foreign aid and domestic fiscal variables in Uganda is analysed using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model over the period 1972-2008. Results show that aid is a significant element of long-run fiscal equilibrium, is associated with increased tax effort and public spending, and reduced domestic borrowing. Shocks to tax revenue are the pulling forces, while those to domestic borrowing, government spending and aid are the pushing forces of the system. Aid has contributed to improved fiscal performance in Uganda, although the slow growth in tax revenue and regular aid shortfalls prevented sustaining a balanced budget inclusive of aid. In terms of policy, it is crucial to increase the reliability and predictability of aid, coordinate aid delivery systems and make aid more transparent. This involves effort on behalf of donors and the government.