Brexit and the End of the Great Policy Moderation
分析英国脱欧如何终结了1980年代以来自由民主国家的经济政策共识，指出脱欧导致不确定性大幅上升，原因包括脱欧后安排的二元性以及对专家信任的下降。
The United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, informally known as Brexit, marked the end of the period of broad economic policy consensus that emerged in liberal democracies from the 1980s onward. The main consequence of Brexit is a large and widespread increase in uncertainty, which can be observed in forecast dispersions and financial variables. Why did Brexit make the United Kingdom, and indeed the world, fundamentally more unpredictable? I present two main reasons, one idiosyncratic to Brexit and one broadly applicable. The first is the binary nature of post-Brexit arrangements—"hard Brexit," or no Brexit. The second, much wider issue is the rising mistrust of experts and consequent demise of the liberal economic policy consensus.