The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks
利用2011-2014年英国调查数据,发现家庭对临时性收入下降的消费反应远大于同等收入上升,高债务、低流动性和信贷约束解释了这种不对称性,对预测宏观政策效果有启示。
A set of newly-added questions in the 2011–2014 Bank of England/NMG Consulting Survey reveals that British households tend to change their consumption by significantly more in reaction to temporary and unanticipated falls in income than to rises of the same size. Household balance sheet characteristics such as high debt-to-income ratios and small liquidity buffers, concerns about credit market access and higher subjective risk of lower future income account for a sizable share of this spending asymmetry. Our findings have important implications for predicting the response of aggregate consumption to expansionary and contractionary macroeconomic policies.