Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship
这篇元分析梳理了关于经济周期波动与经济增长关系的实证研究，发现波动对增长的平均效应为负，但估计值因测量方法、控制变量、估计技术和数据特征而异，且不存在发表偏倚。
Abstract Conflicting theoretical models and diverse empirical evidence characterize research analysing the relationship between business cycle volatility and economic growth. While the average reported effect of volatility on growth is negative, the empirical estimates vary substantially across studies. We identify the factors that explain this heterogeneity in estimates by conducting a meta-analysis. Our evidence suggests that researchers’ choices regarding the measure of volatility, the control set of the estimated equation, the estimation methods, and the data characteristics can all explain the differences in the reported estimates. Finally, the literature is found to be free of publication bias.