Malleable Lies: Communication and Cooperation in a High Stakes TV Game Show
利用高赌注电视游戏节目数据，研究非约束性事前陈述的可信度，提出基于谎言厌恶的陈述分类法，发现条件性或隐含性陈述与较低合作概率相关。
We investigate the credibility of nonbinding preplay statements about cooperative behavior, using data from a high-stakes TV game show in which contestants play a variant on the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma. We depart from the conventional binary approach of classifying statements as promises or not, and propose a more fine-grained two-by-two typology inspired by the idea that lying aversion leads defectors to prefer statements that are malleable to ex-post interpretation as truths. Our empirical analysis shows that statements that carry an element of conditionality or implicitness are associated with a lower likelihood of cooperation, and confirms that malleability is a good criterion for judging the credibility of cheap talk. This paper was accepted by Elke Weber, judgment and decision making.