The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type
使用动态可计算一般均衡模型预测丹麦经济，发现来自西方国家的移民有正面财政影响，而来自非西方国家的移民（包括非难民）因劳动力市场表现弱和提前退休，在丹麦高福利制度下产生巨大负面财政影响。
In this paper, we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen fiscal sustainability, which is under pressure by an ageing population in many European countries. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast of the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. We present life cycle estimates of the potential fiscal impact of immigration considering the cost of immigration on the margin as well as on average. The main conclusion is that immigrants from Western countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from non-Western countries have a large negative one, which is also the case when considering only non-refugee immigrants. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes.