Corporate Innovation Strategy, Analyst Forecasting Activities and the Economic Consequences
研究了企业创新战略（探索型vs利用型）对分析师跟踪和预测准确性的影响，发现探索型战略导致分析师覆盖减少、预测误差和分歧增大，且投资者对其预测修正反应较弱，企业现金持有和内部融资增加、股息率降低。
Abstract We examine the impact of corporate innovation strategy on analyst following and forecasting performance, as well as the associated economic consequences. Using a sample of US firms from 1992−2012, we find that firms pursuing an exploration‐oriented innovation strategy (as opposed to an exploitation‐oriented innovation strategy) are associated with lower analyst coverage, higher forecast error and dispersion. The effect is less pronounced for firms with greater disclosure of innovation activities, and for firms followed by analysts with more firm‐specific experience. We also examine how innovation strategy affects the perceived credibility of analyst forecasts and find that investors appear to be less responsive to forecast revisions issued for exploratory firms. Such firms also incur a higher level of cash holdings, greater internal financing, and lower dividend ratio. The findings of this paper advance our understanding of how a public company's choice of innovation strategy affects its performance in the capital markets as well as the associated economic consequences.