Corrupt Bookmaking in a Fixed Odds Illegal Betting Market*
研究垄断庄家在固定赔率非法赌博市场中如何通过贿赂球员操纵比赛,以及执法调查与赌徒理性对此的影响。
Illegal betting in a two-team sports contest is studied with player sabotage instigated by a monopolist bookmaker. Whereas punters hold beliefs about the teams’ winning chances correlated with Nature's draw, the bookmaker's information is noise-free. Enforcement investigates with a higher probability, the greater the upset. In such an environment, if punters do not suspect match-fixing, the favourite is bribed, thus creating upsets and intensifying subsequent investigations. Match-fixing continues to hold even when punters are rational, provided that the bookie's beliefs are noisy: the bookie bribes the team he thinks is the favourite and the bettors bet on their perceived favourites.