Lemon Technologies and Adoption: Measurement, Theory and Evidence from Agricultural Markets in Uganda*
研究发现乌干达市场上30%的化肥养分缺失，杂交玉米种子中不到50%为真种子，低质量导致低回报，但若用真品则回报高。通过校准学习模型解释为何低质量均衡持续存在。
Abstract To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed is estimated to contain less than 50% authentic seeds. We document that such low quality results in low average returns. If authentic technologies replaced these low-quality products, however, average returns are high. To rationalize the findings, we calibrate a learning model using data from our agricultural trials. Because agricultural yields are noisy, farmers’ ability to learn about quality is limited and this can help explain the low quality equilibrium we observe, but also why the market has not fully collapsed.