THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AT GRADUATION ON OVEREDUCATION
研究发现毕业时经济不景气会降低工人后续职业生涯中岗位与技能匹配的质量，以行业和职业的过度教育衡量错配；地区失业率每上升1个百分点，大学毕业生过度教育概率增加1.6-1.7个百分点，影响持续长达9年。
This article shows that unfavorable economic conditions at graduation decrease the likelihood of a good job‐worker match over a worker's subsequent career. Mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and occupation. The German Socio‐Economic Panel and region‐level unemployment rates from 1994 to 2012 are used. Instrumental variables estimates account for endogenous graduation timing. A single percentage point increase in regional unemployment causes an increase in the probability of overeducation of 1.6–1.7 percentage points for university graduates. Effects for technical tertiary education and apprenticeship graduates are smaller. Labor market entry conditions affect workers for up to 9 years after graduation.