Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment
构建了一个基于主体的模型，从异质性企业与工人的分散互动中解释宏观经济变量（如GDP、生产率、失业）的滞后现象，发现协调外部性和动态规模报酬是主因，而非市场不完善或刚性劳资关系。
In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g., gross domestic product, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogeneous firms and workers. Building upon the "Schumpeter meeting Keynes" family of models (cf. in particular Dosi et al. (2016b(cf. in particular Dosi et al. ( , 2017c)), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers' skills and a state-dependent process of firms entry. Indeed, hysteresis is ubiquitous. However, this is not due to market imperfections, but rather to the very functioning of decentralized economies characterized by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns. So, contrary to the insider-outsider hypothesis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behavior in aggregate unemployment. On the contrary, this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns, and thus declining aggregate demand, phenomena like decreasing investment and innovation rates, skills deterioration, and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long-run unemployment spells and reduced output growth. In that, more rigid labor markets may well dampen hysteretic dynamics by sustaining aggregate demand, thus making the economy more resilient.