Measuring Business Cycles Intra‐Synchronization in US: A Regime‐switching Interdependence Framework
提出了一个马尔可夫转换框架，用于内生识别经济周期同步进入衰退和扩张的时期，并通过蒙特卡洛实验验证其可靠性。应用于美国各州，发现经济结构相似性越高，周期相关性越强，且自1990年代初以来美国内部同步性增强。
Abstract This paper proposes a Markov‐switching framework to endogenously identify periods where economies are more likely to (i) synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases, and (ii) follow independent business cycles. The reliability of the framework is validated with simulated data in Monte Carlo experiments. The framework is applied to assess the time‐varying intra‐country synchronization in the US. The main results report substantial changes over time in the cyclical affiliation patterns of US states, and show that the more similar the economic structures of states, the higher the correlation between their business cycles. A synchronization‐based network analysis discloses a change in the propagation pattern of aggregate contractionary shocks across states, suggesting that the US has become more internally synchronized since the early 1990s.