Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self‐Fulfilling Uncertainties
构建了一个金融市场与实体经济信息相互依赖的模型，揭示两者信息生产中的战略互补性如何导致经济不确定性自我实现，并刻画了动态中的不确定性陷阱和两阶段经济危机。
ABSTRACT We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking economic uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities in general equilibrium. The mutual learning between financial markets and the real economy creates a strategic complementarity in their information production, leading to self‐fulfilling surges in economic uncertainties. In a dynamic setting, our model characterizes self‐fulfilling uncertainty traps with two steady‐state equilibria and a two‐stage economic crisis in transitional dynamics.