Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions
利用22年医保数据,研究发现冷热天均增加死亡率,但暖区热天致死率低、冷区冷天致死率低;考虑区域差异后,寒冷地区将承担更多气候变暖的死亡负担,而适应能大幅降低预估影响。
Abstract We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. How ever, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.