Industrial policy evaluation in the presence of spillovers
针对资本补贴政策空间溢出效应研究不足的问题，提出新框架对比集聚正效应与替代、挤出负效应，并以意大利中小企业补贴政策为例，发现其对投资、营业额和就业有正面影响，但全要素生产率下降，且就业增长部分以牺牲未受补贴企业为代价。
The shortage of studies on spatial spillovers of capital subsidy policies is rather surprising, considering that such policies are usually designed to generate spatial externalities. We propose a new framework that allows positive agglomeration effects to be contrasted with the negative cross-sectional substitution and the crowding-out effect. The global evaluation of the ATT and the spillover parameters shifts the spotlight from the policy effect on subsidised firms to the global effect of capital subsidy policies on the targeted territory. The empirical evaluation of a policy in Italy mainly directed towards small- and medium-sized firms shows that the impact on investments, turnover and employment is positive and large, but is negative on TFP. However, the employment growth is partially determined to the detriment of the untreated firms.