Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting
研究了选区重划如何影响州议会选举中两党得票率，提出衡量党派偏见和议会构成对全州选票变化敏感度的新方法，仅用一年数据即可估算系统变化与随机波动。
Abstract We analyze the effects of redistricting as revealed in the votes received by the Democratic and Republican candidates for state legislature. We develop measures of partisan bias and the responsiveness of the composition of the legislature to changes in statewide votes. Our statistical model incorporates a mixed hierarchical Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimation, requiring simulation along the lines of Tanner and Wong (1987). This model provides reliable estimates of partisan bias and responsiveness along with measures of their variabilities from only a single year of electoral data. This allows one to distinguish systematic changes in the underlying electoral system from typical election-to-election variability.