A Model-Based Hybrid Approach for Circuit Breaker Prognostics Encompassing Dynamic Reliability and Uncertainty
提出一种混合方法，结合确定性操作和随机操作，通过分段确定性马尔可夫过程预测断路器剩余寿命，并融入动态可靠性和不确定失效阈值建模，为状态维修策略提供支持。
Prognostics predictions estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of assets. This information enables the implementation of condition-based maintenance strategies by scheduling intervention when failure is imminent. Circuit breakers (CBs) are key assets for the correct operation of the power network, fulfilling both a protection and a network reconfiguration role. Certain breakers will perform switching on a deterministic schedule, while operating stochastically in response to network faults. Both types of operation increase wear on the main contact, with high fault currents leading to more rapid aging. This paper presents a hybrid approach for prognostics of CBs, which integrates deterministic and stochastic operation through piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) the integration of hybrid prognostics models with dynamic reliability concepts for a more accurate RUL forecasting and 2) the uncertain failure threshold modeling to integrate and propagate uncertain failure evaluation levels in the prognostics estimation process. Results show the effect of dynamic operation conditions on prognostics predictions and confirm the potential for its use within a condition-based maintenance strategy.