The Increasing Irrelevance of Trade Diversion
为政策制定者评估新区域贸易协定提供指南，数据显示仅约四分之一的进口可能受贸易转移影响，且该比例随区域贸易协定增多和关税下降而持续降低，因此贸易转移对新协定的担忧日益无关紧要。
Summary This paper is intended as a guide for policymakers considering new regional trade agreements. The data provided here show that only about a quarter of imports are potentially subject to trade diversion from new agreements (i.e. they come from countries outside of regional trading blocs and in industries with positive most‐favored nation tariffs). Since this percentage is steadily declining with the increasing number of regional trade agreements and the falling level of tariffs, trade diversion is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a concern for new trade deals. The paper also estimates how each potential new bilateral free trade agreement would affect a country's imports and exports, as well as whether the increased imports would replace domestic production, imports from other RTA partners, or imports from non‐RTA partners. In this way, the estimates are able to shed light on which countries make the best partners for new regional trade agreements. Finally, the paper provides estimates of the trade effects for two large potential new regional agreements: the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans‐Pacific Partnership.