Semi-autonomous household expenditures as the causa causans of postwar US business cycles: the stability and instability of Luxemburg-type external markets
提出战后美国商业周期中，家庭投资和债务融资消费作为半自主性支出，类似卢森堡的外部市场，驱动积累和利润实现，而忽视其独立作用会导致对周期机制的误判。
Similar patterns can be observed in post-WWII US business cycles. The initial upswings tend to be led by household investment and debt-financed personal consumption expenditures, which then wane in relative importance, and lead downswings. As those expenditures are financed in significant part by money creation, they function as an external market—driving accumulation by enabling monetary profit realisation—in a way analogous to Rosa Luxemburg’s treatment of the public and foreign sectors. Empirical studies on wage-led/profit-led demand regimes typically exclude household investment or include it in with business investment. This paper argues that it is vital to distinguish an independent role for ‘semi-autonomous’ household expenditures as a driver of effective demand and cyclical dynamics. The failure to do so in empirical studies sustains misleading conclusions such as the perceived relevance of Goodwin-type profit squeeze cycles.