Human capital accumulation and long‐term income growth projections for European regions
提出一个计量框架，用贝叶斯方法预测欧洲区域的人均收入增长和人力资本，考虑模型不确定性和内生性，发现收入收敛和人力资本是未来增长的重要驱动力。
Abstract We propose an econometric framework to construct projections for per capita income growth and human capital for European regions. Using Bayesian methods, our approach accounts for model uncertainty in terms of the choice of explanatory variables, the nature of spatial spillovers, as well as the potential endogeneity between output growth and human capital accumulation. This method allows us to assess the potential contribution of future educational attainment to economic growth and income convergence among European regions over the next decades. Our findings suggest that income convergence dynamics and human capital act as important drivers of income growth for the decades to come.