Rates of Return to Four‐Year University Education: An Application of Regression Discontinuity Design
利用中国基于分数的大学录取制度，采用断点回归设计估计四年制大学教育对收入的影响，发现获得录取资格能显著提高收入，这种回报主要来自教育年限延长和质量提升。
Abstract It is invariably difficult to estimate the rate of return to university education, because of the problem of omitted variable bias. Using a regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effect of a four‐year university education on earnings, and we explore the pathways through which the effect operates. Our estimation exploits the centralized, score‐based college/university admission system in China, where the minimum scores required for university admission are externally determined by the provincial governments. Our findings suggest that being eligible for four‐year university admission implies a sizable increase in earnings. The payoff can be attributed to the prolonged length of education and improvements in education quality, although the quality effects cannot be precisely estimated.