The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve
主张在宏观经济分析中更系统地纳入调查数据中的实时预期，并以新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线为例，展示使用通胀预期调查数据如何解决完全信息理性预期假设下的一些难题。
This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical microevidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations.