Sustained investment surges
研究了1950至2014年间175次持续八年以上的资本存量加速增长事件，发现宏观经济稳定、实际汇率低估和资本外流是投资激增的前兆，且与人均GDP负相关、与人力资本指数正相关。
Abstract Existing empirical studies have mainly focused on determinants of average investment levels. Instead, we investigate episodes of accelerated capital stock growth having a duration of eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low-growth regions, but more so in middle-income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 episodes between 1950 and 2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by macroeconomic stability, real exchange rate undervaluation, and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges tend to be associated with changes in the trade balance and, to a (statistically) weaker extent, with structural change.