Behavioural Response to a Sudden Health Risk: Dengue and Educational Outcomes in Colombia
利用哥伦比亚一次突发登革热疫情，研究发现未直接患病的在校学生因感知健康风险上升而改变行为，导致每增加10例重症登革热，一个典型班级（47人）中参加毕业考试的学生减少1.9至4.7人。
Epidemics tend to have a debilitating influence on the lives of directly afflicted families. However, the presence of an epidemic can also change the behaviour and outcomes of those not directly affected. This paper makes use of a short, sharp, unexpected epidemic to examine the behavioural response of the public to a sudden shift in the perceived risk to one’s health and mortality. Our analysis finds that unafflicted school students change their behaviour substantially, affecting important life outcomes. In particular, we find that between 1.9 and 4.7 fewer students, out of a typical cohort of 47 pupils, sit their school leaving examination for every additional 10 cases of severe Dengue per 10 000 inhabitants in a municipality. We rule out several possible mechanisms, leaving an increase in the salience of the disease’s risks as a plausible explanation for our findings.