Near Misses in the Breakthrough Discovery Process
通过访谈接近发现RNA干扰但最终错失的生物学家，揭示范式刚性导致的三种机制：未注意异常、抗拒解决方案、未能连接社群，帮助理解如何减少失之交臂以提升科研生产力。
Why do researchers on the verge of breakthrough sometimes miss the discovery? While extensive literatures have modeled the course of successful discovery and pinpointed factors associated with groundbreaking discoveries, I focus on understanding why near misses occur by interviewing scientists who were very close to discovering the ribonucleic acid (RNA) interference breakthrough in biology but ultimately missed out. I identify three mechanisms rooted in paradigmatic rigidity that led to the seminal discovery being missed several times: not noticing or recognizing anomalies, actively resisting solutions, and failing to make the link between communities. These findings shed light on the process of breakthrough by clarifying that a better understanding of the mechanism behind near misses is crucial to mitigating them, saving time, and, consequently, boosting productivity and impact. They also have implications for boosting creative breakthrough performance in academic institutions and science-based firms, as well as for designing organizational research environments and guiding innovation strategy.