Specialization, Risk Sharing and the Euro
本文研究了欧元区专业化与风险分担的演变,发现金融一体化并未促进收入风险分担,反而加剧了高低技术国家间的专业化分化,使货币联盟成员面临更高收入波动风险。
Abstract Under the prospect of productive specialization, the degree of potential success of the euro since its inception was seen as closely linked to the development of effective risk‐sharing mechanisms across EU members. Without shared fiscal resources, financial integration was expected to play a leading role in this respect. This paper documents the failure in fulfilling this expectation: Along with an analysis of the evolution of specialization and risk‐sharing, we present evidence supporting the claim that progress in financial integration has not been conducive to income risk‐sharing across euro area members, while it might have favoured a specialization split between countries with low‐medium and high technology productive structures. As a result, monetary union members face higher income fluctuation risk without enhanced insurance protection. Additionally, evidence suggests a differential impact of the specialization split on sector productivity, contributing to making the monetary union a club of non equals.