Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures
通过十张图回顾过去二十年时间序列计量经济学的六大进展，包括动态因果效应、结构模型、大数据方法、预测、时变关系建模和统计推断，展示研究如何提升专业能力，并强调理论与实证问题的紧密联系。
This review tells the story of the past 20 years of time series econometrics through ten pictures. These pictures illustrate six broad areas of progress in time series econometrics: estimation of dynamic causal effects; estimation of dynamic structural models with optimizing agents (specifically, dynamic stochastic equilibrium models); methods for exploiting information in “big data” that are specialized to economic time series; improved methods for forecasting and for monitoring the economy; tools for modeling time variation in economic relationships; and improved methods for statistical inference. Taken together, the pictures show how 20 years of research have improved our ability to undertake our professional responsibilities. These pictures also remind us of the close connection between econometric theory and the empirical problems that motivate the theory, and of how the best econometric theory tends to arise from practical empirical problems.