Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan
基于一般均衡生命周期模型，分析日本老龄化影响，评估保险福利和税收工具改革方案，发现渐进式代际再分配改革比立即改革更易实施。
Abstract We construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life‐cycle model to investigate the effects of aging, and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging. In particular, we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in Japan because of the tense financial situation there. We show that although the potential reforms improve the welfare of future generations, the political implementation of such reforms is difficult because of the large welfare costs for the current population. Our analysis suggests that a gradual reform with an intergenerational redistribution will be more politically implementable than an immediate reform.