Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: estimates based on a dynamic factor model
本文用两阶段计量方法构建了1842-1913年爱尔兰实际GDP年度估计，发现生活水平虽增长约三倍，但经济在1890年代末至一战期间出现收缩，方法在瑞典数据中验证有效。
A major issue in Irish economic history is the lack of national accounts before the interwar period. This paper constructs new annual estimates of real GDP between 1842 and 1913 based on a novel two-stage econometric approach. Our results show that while living standards approximately tripled in this period, development was uneven with contractions in economic activity not only during the Great Famine but also between the late 1890s and the First World War. As a proof of concept, we also apply our methodology to Swedish data. The resulting estimates closely match existing historical national accounts.