The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment
研究了石油供给和需求冲击如何影响美国消费者信心指数，发现供给冲击影响有限，而需求冲击短期正面、长期负面，其他需求冲击则显著负面持续两年。
Abstract This paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment responds to oil price shocks. While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative thereafter. A typical other oil demand shock has a significant negative impact for up to 2 years. By studying the responses of individual survey questions, we find that expectations of future inflation and a change in real household income as well as perceived vehicle and house buying conditions are the main transmission channels of oil supply and demand shocks.