Labour Market Responses to Immigration: Evidence from Internal Migration Driven by Weather Shocks
利用降雨冲击作为工具变量，研究印度尼西亚内部迁移对劳动力市场的影响，发现移民比例增加1个百分点导致收入下降0.97%、就业率下降0.24个百分点，且对低技能本地人影响最大。
We study the labour market impact of internal migration in Indonesia by instrumenting migrant flows with rainfall shocks at the origin area. Estimates reveal that a one percentage point increase in the share of migrants decreases income by 0.97% and reduces employment by 0.24 percentage points. These effects are different across sectors: employment reductions are concentrated in the formal sector, while income reduction occurs in the informal sector. Negative consequences are most pronounced for low‐skilled natives, even though migrants are systematically highly skilled. We suggest that the two‐sector nature of the labour market may explain this pattern.