Challenges to Replication and Iteration in Field Experiments: Evidence from Two Direct Mail Shots
研究者在2015年春季对美国农民进行实验，发现直邮信件能增加政府贷款申请；次年改进设计后，直接效应未能复制，表明情境和内容差异会影响消费者反应。
We conducted an experiment marketing microloans to farmers in the USA during Spring 2015 and found a simple direct mail letter increased borrowing from a government program. The subsequent spring, we built on this finding and enriched the design to test for information spillovers. The direct effect result did not replicate in the second year, thus lowering the likelihood that spillovers would be present and detectable. These results add to recent evidence on how (seemingly subtle) differences in context and treatment content affect consumer responses.