The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy
研究了1871-2014年间总派息（股息加回购）是长期股票市场回报的关键驱动因素，发现每股总派息与经济生产率同步增长，而总派息总额与GDP同步增长，并提出了周期调整总收益率（CATY）作为预测预期收益变化的指标。
We provide theoretical and empirical evidence over 1871–2014 that total payouts (dividends plus buybacks) are the key drivers of long-run stock market returns. We show that total payouts per share (adjusted for the share decrease from buybacks) grew in line with economic productivity, whereas aggregate total payouts grew in line with GDP. We also show that a dividend discount model (DDM) based on current yields and historical growth rates underestimates expected returns relative to the total payout model. Finally, we demonstrate that the cyclically adjusted total yield (CATY) predicts changes in expected returns at least as well as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE).