Comparing probabilistic predictive models applied to football
提出两种贝叶斯多项狄利克雷模型预测足球比赛结果，与三个知名模型比较，用巴西足球锦标赛1710场比赛数据验证，发现新模型预测力强且校准良好。
We propose two Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet models to predict the final outcome of football (soccer) matches and compare them to three well-known models regarding their predictive power. All the models predicted the full-time results of 1710 matches of the first division of the Brazilian football championship and the comparison used three proper scoring rules, the proportion of errors and a calibration assessment. We also provide a goodness of fit measure. Our results show that multinomial-Dirichlet models are not only competitive with standard approaches, but they are also well calibrated and present reasonable goodness of fit.