Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications
利用微观数据发现家庭收入预期存在系统性预测错误，收入水平越高则错误越大；这种偏差源于人们高估收入过程的持续性，进而影响消费储蓄行为，使政府刺激政策效果减弱。
Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the implications of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative model to match the joint distribution of liquid assets and income. Second, the bias alters the distribution of marginal propensities to consume which makes government stimulus policies less effective.